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AI Work Index

Archived methodology

This page documents an earlier release. Its formulas, thresholds, labels, and findings are preserved for auditability but are not the current V8 public meanings. See the current methodology.

V6 Release Note

Archived

V6 was the live structural release from 1 Apr 2026 to 7 Apr 2026. It has been superseded by V7, which adds task-concentration-weighted exposure and a demand-persistence proxy. V6 baseline scores are preserved in every V7 occupation record for auditability.

What V6 introduced

V6 replaced the single-axis market modifier with a two-axis structural formula separating displacement pressure from demand resilience:

headline_risk = displacement_pressure x (1 - demand_resilience)

displacement_pressure = exposure x (1 - bottleneck)

demand_resilience = min(1, base_resilience x 0.45 + demand_signal_bonus)

Key changes from V5:

  • Deterministic 4-source exposure ensemble (Felten AIOE, Anthropic, Eloundou, ILO) with reliability weighting per Frank et al. (2025)
  • Explicit demand resilience as a separate axis rather than collapsed into a market modifier
  • Occupation-level industry-footprint momentum where available, falling back to group prior
  • Pure confidence scoring with policy caps for fallback mappings and contested signals
  • Statistical uncertainty intervals via 5,000-sample Monte Carlo bootstrap
  • Task-primitives sidecar (computed but not used in headline score)

Validation

V6 passed 165 of 169 structural validation checks. Cluster-level backtesting achieved 2/4 directional accuracy with 100% pairwise directional accuracy. The BLS cross-country validation showed negative correlation between risk and employment projections, consistent with the structural pressure interpretation.

Superseded by V7

V7 builds on V6 by wiring task-concentration data (previously a sidecar) into the headline exposure formula and adding a demand-persistence proxy to demand resilience. V6 scores are preserved as baseline_v6 in every occupation record. See the V7 release note and data downloads for the archived V6 dataset.